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Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 1.7% last week to finish at 6664.01 The Nasdaq & the Dow Jones rose as well last week We had an inside day last Monday, then an inside week Earnings season is here The four credit events might snowball into something more serious Credit spreads have started to react, widening over the last two weeks Bond yields fell (yields down, price up) last week The dollar index is also falling The Federal Reserve has been draining excess reserves from the system since 2022 It appears as if the Fed has no choice but to end its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program The Stock Market The S&P 500 rose 1.7% last week to finish at 6664.01. The Nasdaq 100 was up 2.4% and the Dow was up around 1.5%.
Executive Summary The S&P 500, Nasdaq & the Dow Jones fell last week President Trump tanked the market Friday with a post about trade talk troubles with China The S&P 500 still has a lot of momentum, though Bond investors aren’t expecting a recession any time soon The Atlanta Fed GDPNow tool is estimating 3.8% real GDP growth for Q3 The AI boom is increasingly dependent on circular cash flows The U.S. stock market has a lot of exposure to AI The Stock Market
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 1.1% to close the week at 6715.79 The Nasdaq was down 0.3% last week The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.99%. The government shutdown materialized on Wednesday The Fed is expected to cut the funds rate by another quarter point in October Unemployment isn’t rising, and consumers are still spending Recession red flags The last 18 years have been unusual A recession is not Norwood Economics’ base case