Blog

Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 1.9% last week to finish at 5911.69 The S&P 500 rose 6%, the Dow rose 3.8% and the Nasdaq climbed nearly10% in May Could see another test of support around 5,800 this week Several longer-term negative divergences may be pointing to a tough summer Declining new highs during an advancing market is a negative Earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been trending lower Earnings drive the stock market over the long run

Executive Summary The S&P 500 fell 2.6% last week to close at 5,802.82. The 20-Year Treasury auction went poorly. The yield rose above 5%. The 5% threshold has twice this year resulted in the administration adjusting its stance on tariffs. (Make that three times as Trump over the weekend gives the U.K. until July 9 th .) Longer-term inflation expectations are rising. Moody’s downgraded the U.S. to Aa1 on 16 May. The credit default swaps market sees the U.S. as a Baa1/BBB+ credit, on par with Greece. The tax cut bill will add to the deficits and debt. Long-term interest rates might well continue to rise.

Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 5.3% last week to finish at 5,958.38 The Dow advanced 3.4% and the Nasdaq added 7.2% A falling VIX means investor confidence is increasing A 90-day pause in the trade war sent the S&P higher Earnings estimates are falling along with GDP growth forecasts Earnings and interest rates drive the stock market over the long run Investors are chasing performance Small business hiring plans and job openings haven’t improved Norwood Economics continues to look for good companies on sale The Stock Market

Executive Summary The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, to finish at 5,659.91 The Dow fell 0.3%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.5% The 200-day moving average is the next resistance U.S. nominal GDP growth expected to slow significantly Bank of America shifts investment focus Norwood Economics already has exposure to gold for most clients Norwood Economics is overweight international stocks The risk of both higher unemployment and higher inflation has increased The Federal Reserve declined to lower the fed funds rate last week The Stock Market

Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 2.9% last week to finish at 5,686.67 The Dow was up 3% last week, and the Nasdaq rose 3.4% The counter-trend rally is ongoing Investors are extremely bearish due to worries about the trade war Political prediction markets are back Exploding imports are not a sign of weakening demand The April jobs report was better than expected The Trade War continues Capital is flowing into international and emerging markets The US dollar will likely continue to weaken The Stock Market

Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 4.6% last week and finished at 5,525.21 Dollar weakness is an unpleasant surprise Tariffs and the dollar's safe-haven status should have pushed the dollar higher The S&P managed to retake the 20-day moving average Investors are looking for a reason to buy Some strategists are advising to sell the bounce Negative supply shocks are bad for the economy Weakness in U.S. bonds, stocks, and the dollar has investors scared Data is beginning to point to an economic slowdown The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is one of the most important and overlooked economic indicators The Stock Market The S&P 500 rose 4.6% last week and finished at 5,525.21. The Dow rose 2.5% and the Nasdaq gained 6.7%. The S&P’s gains were attributed to President Trump’s statements at a Tuesday press conference. He said that Chinese tariffs would come down, and he wouldn’t fire Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at 4.25%. The two-year Treasury yield finished at 3.79%. The dollar rebounded. The dollar index (DXY) ended the week at 99.587. It hit a 3-year low of 97.921 on Monday. The DXY has lost 9.6% since mid-January. Tariffs and the dollar's safe-haven status should have pushed the dollar higher, not lower. It is believed that foreigners are repatriating their money. America needs foreign capital. Interest rates will have to go higher to entice foreign capital to our shores if safe-haven status is lost.

Executive Summary The S&P 500 fell 1.5% last week to finish at 5,282.70 Counter-trend bounce started on April 7th Counter-trend rallies are short and sharp Thursday was an inside day Any trade war announcements will lead to more volatility Uncertainty is high, and consumer confidence is low The Federal Reserve is focusing on inflation The Philly Fed and Empire State indices continue to rise Small business owners are raising prices to offset input costs The Stock Market is still in a downtrend The Stock Market

Executive Summary The S&P 500 had its best weekly gain since 2023 due to the suspension of most tariffs The Trade War and tariffs have dominated stock market action Daily announcements on the tariff front have led to high volatility The market is still in a downtrend Tariffs will negatively affect the U.S. economy Rising prices will reduce consumer demand U.S. earnings estimates are coming down; currently $267 and falling Pay attention to what bond investors are thinking The weakening dollar fell to its lowest level since 2022 The U.S. needs foreign capital

Executive Summary The S&P 500 fell 9.1% and ended the week at 5,074.08 Bond yields are declining as investors flee stocks CME FedWatch tool now forecasts 3 to 4 Fed funds cuts in 2025 Inflation is higher than the Fed’s target and trending in the wrong direction The Volatility Index (VIX) spiked on Friday. Investors are showing fear The Stock Market is due a bear market bounce The longer-term downtrend likely won't end until Trump’s Trade War ends Market strategists are raising the odds of a recession and reducing price targets The Fed has a dilemma. It doesn't have the tools to deal with rising inflation and slowing economic growth simultaneously