LOW COST INVESTING? YES!
January 18, 2018

Most people do it wrong most of the time… including the professionals. Now you might have already guessed from the title of the article that I am not referring to cooking, gardening, or even your favorite indoor sport (mind out of the gutter please… for me I was thinking of killing Zombies with my daughter on Xbox). Rather, I am referring to investing, and in particular three aspects of investing – remaining diversified, minimizing costs, and buying assets cheaply. Today is about minimizing costs (see “International Diversification Works!” written back in April if you want an introduction to behavioral finance and the tricks we play on ourselves when it comes to inadvertently and often dangerously concentrating our investments). Valuing stocks is for another day…


But before I shift to detailing the wonderful benefits of low-cost investing, let me make note of some feedback I’ve gotten about a couple of my recent articles on the economy and capital markets.


I’ve heard from a number of you that I am too bearish on stocks and bonds, worry too much about losing money, and generally don’t understand that the current environment is different from past periods of excess. After all, this time the Federal Reserve and the other Central Banks around the world are working magic with quantitative easing. Equity markets can’t fall and interest rates can’t rise as long as central banks are committed to flooding the world with liquidity (Hey pay no attention to that 10-year Treasury rate. Well okay it HAS moved from a low of around 1.4% to 2.8%, but surely the Federal Reserve is okay with the better than doubling in rates, or wouldn’t they have done something about it by now?)


Those of you who are blindly putting their faith in the academic bureaucrats who are experimenting with monetary policy might prove right in the end. Perhaps the world’s central banks will prevail this time… or perhaps not (my bet). But for now let’s put aside our little difference of opinion and look into the wonderful world of low-cost investing for the simple reason that reducing our investment costs should be something we can all agree on since lowering costs is tantamount to increasing return!


Cost and price, perhaps the two most important aspects of successful long-term investing, yet all too often ignored by far too many investors. Reducing investment costs is an obvious no-brainer since the increased payoff is guaranteed – reducing your costs equals increasing your return and increasing your return means an improved retirement. Who could possibly object to more money in retirement? Sadly, it is quite common for people to pay little to no attention to their investment costs, a wealth sapping oversight that can cost them dearly. A very recent personal example is indicative of how little attention many people pay to investment costs and how much those costs are… costing them.


The investor was paying his advisor 1.5% per year (or perhaps 1.3%, the investor wasn’t quite sure). The amount invested with the advisor was $1.1 million. The investments in the portfolio were costing the investor another 1% per year on average. The advisor had also sold the investor two variable annuities and at least one private REIT (nice commissions for both). The investor was paying at least 2.5% per year all-in (ignoring the commissions), or at least $27,500 per year, counting just the advisor fee and underlying investment expenses. As an aside, it didn’t sound as if the advisor was doing much for his fee other than handing the investor’s money over to some mediocre mutual fund companies to actually invest. Yet he was nevertheless receiving around $14,300 per year (using the lower 1.3% advisor fee estimate) for his minimal efforts.


And the true cost to the investor? Conservatively, about $13,000 per year since he could have cut his expenses in half by moving into a lower cost portfolio with an advisor who charged a smaller fee (which is almost any advisor for a portfolio over $1 million). Total savings, not counting profits on the money saved over a 20 year period? Why $260,000! Now for most people that’s serious cheddar! Unbelievably, the investor chose to stay with his guy because in his own words, “I don’t make changes very often.” Hello? $260,0000!!!!!


Amazingly, I run into case after case where an investor seems inured to expenses and happily confides that, “His guy is swell and that he plays golf with me. Yep, he is really nice!”


Hello?? $260,000!!!!!! (Actually more because that money isn’t available to make money for you. It wouldn’t be at all unreasonable to assume another $100k after 20 years from investment returns).


Reducing costs increases returns net-of-fees. Increasing returns net-of-fees increases wealth, resulting in additional purchasing power in retirement. Now who can object to that?

By Christopher Norwood September 2, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 finished down 0.1% at 6,460.26 last week The S&P is up 9.8% on the year. Industrials and Communication Services are leading the way Personal income rose in line with expectations for July, climbing 0.4% up from 0.3% the prior month A weak payroll number on 5 September means a Fed rate cut on 17 September Unemployment is expected to rise, but it is still low relative to history Wage growth close to 4% will make it hard for inflation to fall to 2% The predictions market has the odds of a recession at 8% The ICE BofA US High Yield Index spread is near all-time lows A bear steepener is increasingly likely. A bear steepener is when the yield curve falls at the short end but rises at the long end
By Christopher Norwood August 25, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 0.3% last week to close at 6466.91 The CME FedWatch tool initially raised the chances of a September rate cut to 84.7% The stock and bond markets opted to buy Fed Chairman Powell’s Friday morning speech Investors now seem certain that the Fed will start cutting again The current five-year breakeven is 2.48% The 10-year breakeven is 2.41% The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is 3.1% Disinflation appears to be over as the inflation rate is no longer falling The St Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index is negative 0.8153. A negative number means below-average financial market stress The real 10-year interest rate is falling. Money is getting cheaper. The Fed’s balance sheet is shrinking, but is still 22% of GDP An indebted economy can’t withstand high interest rates  The Stock Market
By Christopher Norwood August 18, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 1.01% last week to finish at 6,449.80 The stock market keeps hitting new highs Market strategists are expecting earnings growth to accelerate in 2026 Margins remain near record highs Corporate profit margins will likely take a hit from tariffs Passing tariff costs on to the consumer means raising prices Core CPI rose by 0.3% in July The PPI jumped 0.9% last month, the largest monthly increase in more than three years Buffett says it’s dangerous when the market cap rises to more than 140% of GDP. Currently, the ratio is above 200%. The massive increase in the Fed's balance sheet over the last 25 years has led to financial asset price inflation The Stock Market
By Christopher Norwood August 11, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 2.43% last week, climbing to 6,389.45 Interest rates didn’t move much last week The economy is slowing according to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) Real final sales to Private Domestic Purchasers are slowing The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services index fell from 50.8 to 50.1. The index is only two-tenths away from showing contraction The employment sub-index of the Services Index report was also weak The prices paid sub-index continues to climb Norwood Economics manages its clients' diversified portfolios with a focus on the long run The Stock Market
By Christopher Norwood August 4, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 fell 2.4% last week to end at 6,238.01 The S&P 500 is up 6.06% year-to-date Foreign Stocks in developed countries are leading among major asset classes Foreign stocks are inexpensive compared to U.S. stocks The jobs report was weak with a 258,000 downward revision for May and June Unemployment is likely to rise if job growth doesn’t accelerate Rapid-fire tariff changes make it difficult to predict the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy Tariffs are a tax that someone has to pay Initial jobless claims are a leading indicator Inflation remains elevated Three more chances for the Federal Reserve to cut rates this year Stagflation is a feared outcome of the new tariff regime Uncertainty remains extraordinarily high Interesting Charts The Stock Market
By Christopher Norwood July 28, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 1.5% last week to finish at 6388.64 The impact of tariffs is expected to become more noticeable in the second half of the year The S&P price has outpaced profit growth The economy is still growing, but more slowly Initial jobless claims show that the labor market remains strong Gasoline demand is down, suggesting the rate of consumer spending growth is slowing The Fed meets this week but isn’t expected to change the funds rate  Two Fed governors may dissent on Wednesday. It has been 30 years since that happened The market continues to rise despite the uncertainty
By Christopher Norwood July 21, 2025
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By Christopher Norwood July 14, 2025
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By Christopher Norwood July 7, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 1.7% in a holiday-shortened week, finishing at 6,284.65 Volatility continues to fall from its elevated levels in early April The S&P is up 6.76% year-to-date. Industrials are leading the way, up 13.40% Price determines returns when buying an asset  Diversify away from a concentrated U.S. large-cap stock portfolio Job growth has been holding steady for almost a year now Analysts have been raising earnings estimates recently 90-day tariff suspension ends on Wednesday The Stock Market The S&P 500 rose 1.7% in a holiday-shortened week. The Nasdaq rose 1.6%. Both indexes set new record highs with the S&P reaching 6,284.65 on Thursday afternoon. The jobs report out Thursday spurred the S&P higher. The index gapped up at the open, closing Thursday up 0.83% (see chart below). The S&P 500 is up 26% from the selloff low on April 8, while the Nasdaq has surged 34.9%.
By Christopher Norwood June 30, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 3.4% last week, climbing to 6,173.07 The Magnificent 7 are outperforming the S&P 493 by over 18% since April The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) fell as low as 16.11 last week Investors seem unconcerned about tariffs and war Treasury interest rates are starting to fall The Fed has little reason to cut if unemployment isn't moving higher The stock market is at record highs Corporate bond spreads are tight, meaning credit is abundant The dollar has fallen by around 10% in 2025 Inflation is expected to move higher because of tariff The Stock Market The S&P 500 rose 3.4% last week. The Israeli-Iranian ceasefire was credited with the surge to the upside. The index had lost 0.7% over the prior two weeks.