ORPHANED: DON'T LEAVE YOUR 401(K) BEHIND
May 24, 2018
Woman Checking Her Saved Money — Fishers, IN — Norwood Economics

I once had a wealth management client call to ask me what he should do with his pension plan. It was a surprising question because he’d been a client for some five years, and not once had he mentioned a pension plan. We’d dutifully reviewed his financial plan annually, updated income and asset numbers, tweaked retirement goals, and stress tested his plan to see what impact retiring a bit earlier or later might have on the probability of experiencing a successful retirement. Not once had his Motorola pension plan come up. Why?


Because he had no idea that he had a pension plan at Motorola until he received a letter in the mail asking him whether he wanted a $176,000 lump sum payout, or if he would prefer to start taking his pension as a monthly check. Astonishing! Yet, surprisingly common. As it happened, another client called a few months later with essentially the same question; this time it was "only" $82,000.


People forget their retirement plan savings frequently, leaving them behind when they leave their jobs, and often never reconnecting with their money. It’s becoming even more common given the increasing frequency of job hopping, particularly among millennials. Check out these interesting facts:


Among mass affluent investors with at least $50,000 in investable assets, 62% of 18 to 24-year-olds had at least one 401(k) from a former employer in 2017, A.T. Kearney's 2017 Future of Advice study shows. The average size of those accounts was $33,000. (U.S. News and World Report, April 2018)


Among older millennials -- those ages 25 to 34 – 59% had at least one "orphan" 401(k). Those accounts averaged $47,000. (U.S. News and World Report, April 2018)


Millennials were more likely to have stranded accounts; 66% of missing participant account holders are Millennials. (Data and Research, March 2018)


Seventy-eight percent of missing participant account holders are employed—meaning they could have a new retirement plan to which they could roll over their stranded balances. (Data and Research, March 2018)


A study done by Retirement Clearinghouse and Boston Research Technologies found 11% of stranded accounts had a stale address, and there were 1.42 stranded accounts per participant. Thirty-one percent of these accounts had balances less than $10,000, and 73% had less than $100,000. This means 27% of the accounts that were abandoned had more than $100,000 in them!


Stranded accounts are also in serious danger of being cashed out when reclaimed: 44% of employees between ages 20 and 29 cash out some or all of their 401(k) assets, compared with 38% of those in their 30s and 33% of employees in their 40s. (Fidelity Investments Study, April 2015)


What are the long-term negative consequences of stranded 401(k) cash outs? We’ll explore this topic in part two.

By Christopher Norwood September 2, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 finished down 0.1% at 6,460.26 last week The S&P is up 9.8% on the year. Industrials and Communication Services are leading the way Personal income rose in line with expectations for July, climbing 0.4% up from 0.3% the prior month A weak payroll number on 5 September means a Fed rate cut on 17 September Unemployment is expected to rise, but it is still low relative to history Wage growth close to 4% will make it hard for inflation to fall to 2% The predictions market has the odds of a recession at 8% The ICE BofA US High Yield Index spread is near all-time lows A bear steepener is increasingly likely. A bear steepener is when the yield curve falls at the short end but rises at the long end
By Christopher Norwood August 25, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 0.3% last week to close at 6466.91 The CME FedWatch tool initially raised the chances of a September rate cut to 84.7% The stock and bond markets opted to buy Fed Chairman Powell’s Friday morning speech Investors now seem certain that the Fed will start cutting again The current five-year breakeven is 2.48% The 10-year breakeven is 2.41% The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is 3.1% Disinflation appears to be over as the inflation rate is no longer falling The St Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index is negative 0.8153. A negative number means below-average financial market stress The real 10-year interest rate is falling. Money is getting cheaper. The Fed’s balance sheet is shrinking, but is still 22% of GDP An indebted economy can’t withstand high interest rates  The Stock Market
By Christopher Norwood August 18, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 1.01% last week to finish at 6,449.80 The stock market keeps hitting new highs Market strategists are expecting earnings growth to accelerate in 2026 Margins remain near record highs Corporate profit margins will likely take a hit from tariffs Passing tariff costs on to the consumer means raising prices Core CPI rose by 0.3% in July The PPI jumped 0.9% last month, the largest monthly increase in more than three years Buffett says it’s dangerous when the market cap rises to more than 140% of GDP. Currently, the ratio is above 200%. The massive increase in the Fed's balance sheet over the last 25 years has led to financial asset price inflation The Stock Market
By Christopher Norwood August 11, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 2.43% last week, climbing to 6,389.45 Interest rates didn’t move much last week The economy is slowing according to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) Real final sales to Private Domestic Purchasers are slowing The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services index fell from 50.8 to 50.1. The index is only two-tenths away from showing contraction The employment sub-index of the Services Index report was also weak The prices paid sub-index continues to climb Norwood Economics manages its clients' diversified portfolios with a focus on the long run The Stock Market
By Christopher Norwood August 4, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 fell 2.4% last week to end at 6,238.01 The S&P 500 is up 6.06% year-to-date Foreign Stocks in developed countries are leading among major asset classes Foreign stocks are inexpensive compared to U.S. stocks The jobs report was weak with a 258,000 downward revision for May and June Unemployment is likely to rise if job growth doesn’t accelerate Rapid-fire tariff changes make it difficult to predict the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy Tariffs are a tax that someone has to pay Initial jobless claims are a leading indicator Inflation remains elevated Three more chances for the Federal Reserve to cut rates this year Stagflation is a feared outcome of the new tariff regime Uncertainty remains extraordinarily high Interesting Charts The Stock Market
By Christopher Norwood July 28, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 1.5% last week to finish at 6388.64 The impact of tariffs is expected to become more noticeable in the second half of the year The S&P price has outpaced profit growth The economy is still growing, but more slowly Initial jobless claims show that the labor market remains strong Gasoline demand is down, suggesting the rate of consumer spending growth is slowing The Fed meets this week but isn’t expected to change the funds rate  Two Fed governors may dissent on Wednesday. It has been 30 years since that happened The market continues to rise despite the uncertainty
By Christopher Norwood July 21, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 0.6% last week to finish at 6,296.79 The 2-Year trended lower, ending the week yielding 3.88% The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at 4.44% Investors are nervous about tariffs and their impact Tariffs are coming directly out of the pockets of the US businesses that import the goods Rising inflation expectations only increases the chances of higher inflation and interest rates Continue to buy good companies on sale
By Christopher Norwood July 14, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 fell 0.3% to close the week at 6,259.75 We would rather own the German economy than Nvidia Consumer spending is weakening The consumer price index report will be released on Tuesday Economists believe that tariffs will cause prices to rise Economists believe that tariffs will slow the economy The jobs market is stable. The unemployment rate is low. Earnings estimates are falling more than is normal There are still good companies on sale The Stock Market
By Christopher Norwood July 7, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 1.7% in a holiday-shortened week, finishing at 6,284.65 Volatility continues to fall from its elevated levels in early April The S&P is up 6.76% year-to-date. Industrials are leading the way, up 13.40% Price determines returns when buying an asset  Diversify away from a concentrated U.S. large-cap stock portfolio Job growth has been holding steady for almost a year now Analysts have been raising earnings estimates recently 90-day tariff suspension ends on Wednesday The Stock Market The S&P 500 rose 1.7% in a holiday-shortened week. The Nasdaq rose 1.6%. Both indexes set new record highs with the S&P reaching 6,284.65 on Thursday afternoon. The jobs report out Thursday spurred the S&P higher. The index gapped up at the open, closing Thursday up 0.83% (see chart below). The S&P 500 is up 26% from the selloff low on April 8, while the Nasdaq has surged 34.9%.
By Christopher Norwood June 30, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 3.4% last week, climbing to 6,173.07 The Magnificent 7 are outperforming the S&P 493 by over 18% since April The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) fell as low as 16.11 last week Investors seem unconcerned about tariffs and war Treasury interest rates are starting to fall The Fed has little reason to cut if unemployment isn't moving higher The stock market is at record highs Corporate bond spreads are tight, meaning credit is abundant The dollar has fallen by around 10% in 2025 Inflation is expected to move higher because of tariff The Stock Market The S&P 500 rose 3.4% last week. The Israeli-Iranian ceasefire was credited with the surge to the upside. The index had lost 0.7% over the prior two weeks.