Stuff To Know
July 3, 2018
Work or Retire Sign — Fishers, IN — Norwood Economics

He had a guy that seemed to be doing just fine with his investment portfolio. When asked if he’d ever had anyone do retirement planning for him, he paused and then repeated that this guy (that his brother had recommended) seemed to be doing okay with the investing.


Retirement planning is about much more than investing. Investing is what you do with your savings to earn a return. You save and earn a return on your savings in order to have sufficient funds to meet your spending goals in retirement. You can’t retire and continue to consume without a retirement income, such as social security and savings. You need savings in addition to social security because social security is designed to only replace about 40% of your income. While it is true that the more you earn on your savings the less you need to save, it is not true that you will have a successful retirement 100% of the time as long as you beat the S&P 500 index return. You need to also save enough. Retirement planning is, in part, about determining an adequate savings rate.


Retirement planning is about much more than saving at an appropriate rate and investing your savings in a manner that will maximize the probability of meeting your spending goals in retirement. Retirement planning is also about contingency planning. No one knows how their future will play out, not in any real detail. Do we meet our savings goal or is it derailed by the loss of a job, illness, a divorce? Effective retirement planning includes contingency planning: What if this happens? What if that? A good retirement plan is stress tested after the basic model is built. A good retirement plan is robust enough to withstand life’s little jokes.


I had a woman tell me that her 401(k) plan had added a Roth option. A Roth IRA allows for after-tax savings, tax-free accumulation and tax free distributions. A traditional IRA allows for pre-tax savings, tax-free accumulation and taxable distributions. Tax uncertainty (not knowing future income tax rates) argues for putting money into both a Roth and Traditional IRA. The woman asked me if she should invest in the new Roth option, or continue to put money into a target-dated fund. Of course, that isn’t the choice. The Roth option isn’t an investment; it is an account that holds money that can then be invested in the same options as in the traditional 401(k) account. IRAs and Roth IRAs are not investments; they are investment accounts, with certain tax characteristics, into which you can place savings with which to invest.


I had a man tell me he didn’t want to just use index funds because he didn’t want to put all of his eggs in one basket. Index funds are now ubiquitous and can range from passively tracking a concentrated basket of investments, to tracking a broad, highly diversified basket of investments. Presumably, he meant he didn’t want to only invest in low-cost, passively managed funds, but instead wanted to also invest in higher-cost, actively managed funds as well. However, the choice between using index funds and actively managed funds has nothing to do with diversification. It is very easy to build a properly diversified index fund portfolio if that is your goal. Index funds are not an asset class; they are a type of money management style.

The Jobs Report Friday Could Spark a Rally or Sell-off

By Christopher Norwood • September 2, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 finished down 0.1% at 6,460.26 last week The S&P is up 9.8% on the year. Industrials and Communication Services are leading the way Personal income rose in line with expectations for July, climbing 0.4% up from 0.3% the prior month A weak payroll number on 5 September means a Fed rate cut on 17 September Unemployment is expected to rise, but it is still low relative to history Wage growth close to 4% will make it hard for inflation to fall to 2% The predictions market has the odds of a recession at 8% The ICE BofA US High Yield Index spread is near all-time lows A bear steepener is increasingly likely. A bear steepener is when the yield curve falls at the short end but rises at the long end

One of Financial Planning's Most Important Inputs is the Expected Average Inflation Rate

By Christopher Norwood • August 25, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 0.3% last week to close at 6466.91 The CME FedWatch tool initially raised the chances of a September rate cut to 84.7% The stock and bond markets opted to buy Fed Chairman Powell’s Friday morning speech Investors now seem certain that the Fed will start cutting again The current five-year breakeven is 2.48% The 10-year breakeven is 2.41% The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is 3.1% Disinflation appears to be over as the inflation rate is no longer falling The St Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index is negative 0.8153. A negative number means below-average financial market stress The real 10-year interest rate is falling. Money is getting cheaper. The Fed’s balance sheet is shrinking, but is still 22% of GDP An indebted economy can’t withstand high interest rates  The Stock Market

Overvaluation is a Poor Market Timing Tool

By Christopher Norwood • August 18, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 1.01% last week to finish at 6,449.80 The stock market keeps hitting new highs Market strategists are expecting earnings growth to accelerate in 2026 Margins remain near record highs Corporate profit margins will likely take a hit from tariffs Passing tariff costs on to the consumer means raising prices Core CPI rose by 0.3% in July The PPI jumped 0.9% last month, the largest monthly increase in more than three years Buffett says it’s dangerous when the market cap rises to more than 140% of GDP. Currently, the ratio is above 200%. The massive increase in the Fed's balance sheet over the last 25 years has led to financial asset price inflation The Stock Market

More Unfavorable Economic News

By Christopher Norwood • August 11, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 2.43% last week, climbing to 6,389.45 Interest rates didn’t move much last week The economy is slowing according to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) Real final sales to Private Domestic Purchasers are slowing The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services index fell from 50.8 to 50.1. The index is only two-tenths away from showing contraction The employment sub-index of the Services Index report was also weak The prices paid sub-index continues to climb Norwood Economics manages its clients' diversified portfolios with a focus on the long run The Stock Market

Uncertainty Remains Extraordinarily High

By Christopher Norwood • August 4, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 fell 2.4% last week to end at 6,238.01 The S&P 500 is up 6.06% year-to-date Foreign Stocks in developed countries are leading among major asset classes Foreign stocks are inexpensive compared to U.S. stocks The jobs report was weak with a 258,000 downward revision for May and June Unemployment is likely to rise if job growth doesn’t accelerate Rapid-fire tariff changes make it difficult to predict the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy Tariffs are a tax that someone has to pay Initial jobless claims are a leading indicator Inflation remains elevated Three more chances for the Federal Reserve to cut rates this year Stagflation is a feared outcome of the new tariff regime Uncertainty remains extraordinarily high Interesting Charts The Stock Market

Forewarned is Forearmed

By Christopher Norwood • July 28, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 1.5% last week to finish at 6388.64 The impact of tariffs is expected to become more noticeable in the second half of the year The S&P price has outpaced profit growth The economy is still growing, but more slowly Initial jobless claims show that the labor market remains strong Gasoline demand is down, suggesting the rate of consumer spending growth is slowing The Fed meets this week but isn’t expected to change the funds rate  Two Fed governors may dissent on Wednesday. It has been 30 years since that happened The market continues to rise despite the uncertainty

Inflation Expectations Continue to Rise

By Christopher Norwood • July 21, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 0.6% last week to finish at 6,296.79 The 2-Year trended lower, ending the week yielding 3.88% The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at 4.44% Investors are nervous about tariffs and their impact Tariffs are coming directly out of the pockets of the US businesses that import the goods Rising inflation expectations only increases the chances of higher inflation and interest rates Continue to buy good companies on sale

Tariff Uncertainty Still Dominates

By Christopher Norwood • July 14, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 fell 0.3% to close the week at 6,259.75 We would rather own the German economy than Nvidia Consumer spending is weakening The consumer price index report will be released on Tuesday Economists believe that tariffs will cause prices to rise Economists believe that tariffs will slow the economy The jobs market is stable. The unemployment rate is low. Earnings estimates are falling more than is normal There are still good companies on sale The Stock Market

Diversification Critical in the Coming Decade

By Christopher Norwood • July 7, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 1.7% in a holiday-shortened week, finishing at 6,284.65 Volatility continues to fall from its elevated levels in early April The S&P is up 6.76% year-to-date. Industrials are leading the way, up 13.40% Price determines returns when buying an asset  Diversify away from a concentrated U.S. large-cap stock portfolio Job growth has been holding steady for almost a year now Analysts have been raising earnings estimates recently 90-day tariff suspension ends on Wednesday The Stock Market The S&P 500 rose 1.7% in a holiday-shortened week. The Nasdaq rose 1.6%. Both indexes set new record highs with the S&P reaching 6,284.65 on Thursday afternoon. The jobs report out Thursday spurred the S&P higher. The index gapped up at the open, closing Thursday up 0.83% (see chart below). The S&P 500 is up 26% from the selloff low on April 8, while the Nasdaq has surged 34.9%.

The Fear Gauge has Fallen

By Christopher Norwood • June 30, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 3.4% last week, climbing to 6,173.07 The Magnificent 7 are outperforming the S&P 493 by over 18% since April The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) fell as low as 16.11 last week Investors seem unconcerned about tariffs and war Treasury interest rates are starting to fall The Fed has little reason to cut if unemployment isn't moving higher The stock market is at record highs Corporate bond spreads are tight, meaning credit is abundant The dollar has fallen by around 10% in 2025 Inflation is expected to move higher because of tariff The Stock Market The S&P 500 rose 3.4% last week. The Israeli-Iranian ceasefire was credited with the surge to the upside. The index had lost 0.7% over the prior two weeks.