TAX PROBLEMS IN RETIREMENT
November 26, 2019
Tax Letters Block — Fishers, IN — Norwood Economics

TAXES IN RETIREMENT

A LOT OF RETIREMENT INCOME IS TAXABLE INCOME

WHAT'S YOUR STRATEGY?

I have a friend who has a tax problem in retirement. He and his wife both have defined benefit plans and the total income is around $180,000. They also have large IRA accounts and will be forced to start taking sizeable required minimum distributions when they turn 70 ½ years old (72 if the Secure Act passes in the Senate and is signed into law). They’re going to start taking social security when they turn 70, as they should, and that income will also be taxable. It’s going to put them well over $250,000 annually in taxable income, which may trigger the 3.8% Medicare investment income tax if their modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) is over $250,000 as well.


Managing your taxes in retirement is important. Many people don’t even think about it when planning for their golden years. They should. Social Security is taxable income. Pension plan income is taxable as well, although fewer and fewer people have the benefit of a defined benefit plan in retirement. 401(k) and IRA distributions are also taxable as earned income. Add it all together and you can end up in one of the higher income tax brackets in retirement despite no longer working. The time to plan for taxes in retirement is well before you retire. One obvious strategy is to put money into a Roth 401(k) account if your 401(k) plan allows it – more and more do. Of course, you can also put money directly into a Roth IRA if your MAGI is under $137,000 if filing individually and $203,000 if married filing jointly.


Perhaps the best time to contribute to a Roth is when you’re younger and not making as much money. A lower tax bracket means the tax deferral is less valuable. Switching to pre-tax deferrals when you are older and in a higher tax bracket can make sense. We recommend giving yourself flexibility in retirement by having both pre-tax and after-tax savings. The tax deferral has real economic value; the longer the deferral period the more value produced by tax-deferral. It’s nice to have after-tax savings as well though. You don’t want to be forced to pull money from an account that will generate additional earned income for you just because it’s time for a new roof.


Roth conversions are another way to transform pre-tax savings into after-tax savings, but we’re not in favor of conversions in most cases. Why pay taxes before you must? You are better off keeping the government’s money and investing it, making more money for yourself, and only paying those pesky taxes when necessary. The math just doesn’t work for conversion in most cases. One situation in which a Roth conversion does make sense is for estate planning purposes. Converting some or all of an IRA to a Roth to leave the money to heirs makes sense if you know you’re not going to need the money for your retirement. The converted assets continue to grow tax-free and your heirs won’t have to pay taxes on the Roth inheritance.

By Christopher Norwood September 2, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 finished down 0.1% at 6,460.26 last week The S&P is up 9.8% on the year. Industrials and Communication Services are leading the way Personal income rose in line with expectations for July, climbing 0.4% up from 0.3% the prior month A weak payroll number on 5 September means a Fed rate cut on 17 September Unemployment is expected to rise, but it is still low relative to history Wage growth close to 4% will make it hard for inflation to fall to 2% The predictions market has the odds of a recession at 8% The ICE BofA US High Yield Index spread is near all-time lows A bear steepener is increasingly likely. A bear steepener is when the yield curve falls at the short end but rises at the long end
By Christopher Norwood August 25, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 0.3% last week to close at 6466.91 The CME FedWatch tool initially raised the chances of a September rate cut to 84.7% The stock and bond markets opted to buy Fed Chairman Powell’s Friday morning speech Investors now seem certain that the Fed will start cutting again The current five-year breakeven is 2.48% The 10-year breakeven is 2.41% The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is 3.1% Disinflation appears to be over as the inflation rate is no longer falling The St Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index is negative 0.8153. A negative number means below-average financial market stress The real 10-year interest rate is falling. Money is getting cheaper. The Fed’s balance sheet is shrinking, but is still 22% of GDP An indebted economy can’t withstand high interest rates  The Stock Market
By Christopher Norwood August 18, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 1.01% last week to finish at 6,449.80 The stock market keeps hitting new highs Market strategists are expecting earnings growth to accelerate in 2026 Margins remain near record highs Corporate profit margins will likely take a hit from tariffs Passing tariff costs on to the consumer means raising prices Core CPI rose by 0.3% in July The PPI jumped 0.9% last month, the largest monthly increase in more than three years Buffett says it’s dangerous when the market cap rises to more than 140% of GDP. Currently, the ratio is above 200%. The massive increase in the Fed's balance sheet over the last 25 years has led to financial asset price inflation The Stock Market
By Christopher Norwood August 11, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 2.43% last week, climbing to 6,389.45 Interest rates didn’t move much last week The economy is slowing according to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) Real final sales to Private Domestic Purchasers are slowing The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services index fell from 50.8 to 50.1. The index is only two-tenths away from showing contraction The employment sub-index of the Services Index report was also weak The prices paid sub-index continues to climb Norwood Economics manages its clients' diversified portfolios with a focus on the long run The Stock Market
By Christopher Norwood August 4, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 fell 2.4% last week to end at 6,238.01 The S&P 500 is up 6.06% year-to-date Foreign Stocks in developed countries are leading among major asset classes Foreign stocks are inexpensive compared to U.S. stocks The jobs report was weak with a 258,000 downward revision for May and June Unemployment is likely to rise if job growth doesn’t accelerate Rapid-fire tariff changes make it difficult to predict the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy Tariffs are a tax that someone has to pay Initial jobless claims are a leading indicator Inflation remains elevated Three more chances for the Federal Reserve to cut rates this year Stagflation is a feared outcome of the new tariff regime Uncertainty remains extraordinarily high Interesting Charts The Stock Market
By Christopher Norwood July 28, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 1.5% last week to finish at 6388.64 The impact of tariffs is expected to become more noticeable in the second half of the year The S&P price has outpaced profit growth The economy is still growing, but more slowly Initial jobless claims show that the labor market remains strong Gasoline demand is down, suggesting the rate of consumer spending growth is slowing The Fed meets this week but isn’t expected to change the funds rate  Two Fed governors may dissent on Wednesday. It has been 30 years since that happened The market continues to rise despite the uncertainty
By Christopher Norwood July 21, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 0.6% last week to finish at 6,296.79 The 2-Year trended lower, ending the week yielding 3.88% The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at 4.44% Investors are nervous about tariffs and their impact Tariffs are coming directly out of the pockets of the US businesses that import the goods Rising inflation expectations only increases the chances of higher inflation and interest rates Continue to buy good companies on sale
By Christopher Norwood July 14, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 fell 0.3% to close the week at 6,259.75 We would rather own the German economy than Nvidia Consumer spending is weakening The consumer price index report will be released on Tuesday Economists believe that tariffs will cause prices to rise Economists believe that tariffs will slow the economy The jobs market is stable. The unemployment rate is low. Earnings estimates are falling more than is normal There are still good companies on sale The Stock Market
By Christopher Norwood July 7, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 1.7% in a holiday-shortened week, finishing at 6,284.65 Volatility continues to fall from its elevated levels in early April The S&P is up 6.76% year-to-date. Industrials are leading the way, up 13.40% Price determines returns when buying an asset  Diversify away from a concentrated U.S. large-cap stock portfolio Job growth has been holding steady for almost a year now Analysts have been raising earnings estimates recently 90-day tariff suspension ends on Wednesday The Stock Market The S&P 500 rose 1.7% in a holiday-shortened week. The Nasdaq rose 1.6%. Both indexes set new record highs with the S&P reaching 6,284.65 on Thursday afternoon. The jobs report out Thursday spurred the S&P higher. The index gapped up at the open, closing Thursday up 0.83% (see chart below). The S&P 500 is up 26% from the selloff low on April 8, while the Nasdaq has surged 34.9%.
By Christopher Norwood June 30, 2025
Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 3.4% last week, climbing to 6,173.07 The Magnificent 7 are outperforming the S&P 493 by over 18% since April The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) fell as low as 16.11 last week Investors seem unconcerned about tariffs and war Treasury interest rates are starting to fall The Fed has little reason to cut if unemployment isn't moving higher The stock market is at record highs Corporate bond spreads are tight, meaning credit is abundant The dollar has fallen by around 10% in 2025 Inflation is expected to move higher because of tariff The Stock Market The S&P 500 rose 3.4% last week. The Israeli-Iranian ceasefire was credited with the surge to the upside. The index had lost 0.7% over the prior two weeks.