Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 2.9% last week to finish at 5,686.67 The Dow was up 3% last week, and the Nasdaq rose 3.4% The counter-trend rally is ongoing Investors are extremely bearish due to worries about the trade war Political prediction markets are back Exploding imports are not a sign of weakening demand The April jobs report was better than expected The Trade War continues Capital is flowing into international and emerging markets The US dollar will likely continue to weaken The Stock Market

Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 4.6% last week and finished at 5,525.21 Dollar weakness is an unpleasant surprise Tariffs and the dollar's safe-haven status should have pushed the dollar higher The S&P managed to retake the 20-day moving average Investors are looking for a reason to buy Some strategists are advising to sell the bounce Negative supply shocks are bad for the economy Weakness in U.S. bonds, stocks, and the dollar has investors scared Data is beginning to point to an economic slowdown The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is one of the most important and overlooked economic indicators The Stock Market The S&P 500 rose 4.6% last week and finished at 5,525.21. The Dow rose 2.5% and the Nasdaq gained 6.7%. The S&P’s gains were attributed to President Trump’s statements at a Tuesday press conference. He said that Chinese tariffs would come down, and he wouldn’t fire Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at 4.25%. The two-year Treasury yield finished at 3.79%. The dollar rebounded. The dollar index (DXY) ended the week at 99.587. It hit a 3-year low of 97.921 on Monday. The DXY has lost 9.6% since mid-January. Tariffs and the dollar's safe-haven status should have pushed the dollar higher, not lower. It is believed that foreigners are repatriating their money. America needs foreign capital. Interest rates will have to go higher to entice foreign capital to our shores if safe-haven status is lost.

Executive Summary The S&P 500 fell 1.5% last week to finish at 5,282.70 Counter-trend bounce started on April 7th Counter-trend rallies are short and sharp Thursday was an inside day Any trade war announcements will lead to more volatility Uncertainty is high, and consumer confidence is low The Federal Reserve is focusing on inflation The Philly Fed and Empire State indices continue to rise Small business owners are raising prices to offset input costs The Stock Market is still in a downtrend The Stock Market

Executive Summary The S&P 500 had its best weekly gain since 2023 due to the suspension of most tariffs The Trade War and tariffs have dominated stock market action Daily announcements on the tariff front have led to high volatility The market is still in a downtrend Tariffs will negatively affect the U.S. economy Rising prices will reduce consumer demand U.S. earnings estimates are coming down; currently $267 and falling Pay attention to what bond investors are thinking The weakening dollar fell to its lowest level since 2022 The U.S. needs foreign capital

Executive Summary The S&P 500 fell 9.1% and ended the week at 5,074.08 Bond yields are declining as investors flee stocks CME FedWatch tool now forecasts 3 to 4 Fed funds cuts in 2025 Inflation is higher than the Fed’s target and trending in the wrong direction The Volatility Index (VIX) spiked on Friday. Investors are showing fear The Stock Market is due a bear market bounce The longer-term downtrend likely won't end until Trump’s Trade War ends Market strategists are raising the odds of a recession and reducing price targets The Fed has a dilemma. It doesn't have the tools to deal with rising inflation and slowing economic growth simultaneously

Executive Summary The S&P 500 fell 1.5% and ended the week at 5,580.94 The energy & healthcare sectors are the leading gainers year to date The S&P early highs and late lows are a sign of market weakness The fixed income market is signaling higher for longer Mortgage rates seem high to younger home buyers Mortgage rates were higher from 1972-2002 Earnings & GDP growth estimates are coming down The stock market reflects the economy Consumer confidence plunged to a 12-year low The economy is vulnerable to a declining stock market

Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 0.5% last week to finish at 5,667.56 breaking its four-week losing streak The uncertainty surrounding the trade war will weigh on the economy and capital markets for the foreseeable future. Economists and the public aren’t sure whether to worry about inflation, weakening economic growth, or both. The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) signals two rate cuts and a higher year-end inflation number Invoking the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 will lead to higher prices U.S. stocks are the only asset class losing money in 2025 The Stock Market The S&P 500 rose 0.5% last week to 5,667.56. The Nasdaq rose 0.2% and the Dow was up 1.2%. The S&P broke a four-week losing streak. It was due for an oversold bounce. We wrote last week, “The S&P is primed to bounce this week, likely at least back to the 200-day moving average residing at 5,740.” The S&P did bounce but only reached 5,715.33 on Wednesday around 3 p.m. Fed Chairman Powell was speaking soothing words at the time to investors during his press conference following the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. The S&P couldn’t build on Wednesday’s late gains though, although it did try.

Executive Summary • The S&P 500 fell 2.3% last week to finish at 5,638.94 • The S&P is down 4.13% year-to-date • The Nasdaq fell into correction territory and is down 11.6% since mid-February • Market strategists are saying recession risk is rising • Tariffs hurt the economy • Consumers and small business owners are feeling the pinch • The NFIB Uncertainty Index rose to its second-highest level ever in February • The Trump administration is targeting a lower 10-year Treasury Yield • Interesting Charts below The Stock Market

Executive Summary The S&P 500 fell 3.1% last week to finish at 5,770.20 The S&P closed 50 points above the 200-day moving average on Friday A bearish crossover or a “dark cross” indicates a loss of momentum A correction of 10% or more is increasingly likely Founder of AQR, Cliff Asness makes some important observations Interesting Charts below The Stock Market The S&P 500 fell 3.1% last week to finish at 5,770.20, its worst week since September. The S&P is down 1.9% for the year. Technology (XLK) is down 6.01% year-to-date. Consumer discretionary (XLY) is down 8.33%. The other nine S&P sectors are up on the year, led by Health Care (XLV), which is up 8.51%. Consumer Staples (XLP) is the next best-performing sector, up 5.41%. The 10-year Treasury Yield rose to 4.31% from 4.21% last week. The two-year yield was unchanged at 4.01%.