Executive Summary The S&P 500 fell 2.4% last week to end at 6,238.01 The S&P 500 is up 6.06% year-to-date Foreign Stocks in developed countries are leading among major asset classes Foreign stocks are inexpensive compared to U.S. stocks The jobs report was weak with a 258,000 downward revision for May and June Unemployment is likely to rise if job growth doesn’t accelerate Rapid-fire tariff changes make it difficult to predict the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy Tariffs are a tax that someone has to pay Initial jobless claims are a leading indicator Inflation remains elevated Three more chances for the Federal Reserve to cut rates this year Stagflation is a feared outcome of the new tariff regime Uncertainty remains extraordinarily high Interesting Charts The Stock Market

Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 1.5% last week to finish at 6388.64 The impact of tariffs is expected to become more noticeable in the second half of the year The S&P price has outpaced profit growth The economy is still growing, but more slowly Initial jobless claims show that the labor market remains strong Gasoline demand is down, suggesting the rate of consumer spending growth is slowing The Fed meets this week but isn’t expected to change the funds rate  Two Fed governors may dissent on Wednesday. It has been 30 years since that happened The market continues to rise despite the uncertainty

Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 0.6% last week to finish at 6,296.79 The 2-Year trended lower, ending the week yielding 3.88% The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week at 4.44% Investors are nervous about tariffs and their impact Tariffs are coming directly out of the pockets of the US businesses that import the goods Rising inflation expectations only increases the chances of higher inflation and interest rates Continue to buy good companies on sale

Executive Summary The S&P 500 fell 0.3% to close the week at 6,259.75 We would rather own the German economy than Nvidia Consumer spending is weakening The consumer price index report will be released on Tuesday Economists believe that tariffs will cause prices to rise Economists believe that tariffs will slow the economy The jobs market is stable. The unemployment rate is low. Earnings estimates are falling more than is normal There are still good companies on sale The Stock Market

Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 1.7% in a holiday-shortened week, finishing at 6,284.65 Volatility continues to fall from its elevated levels in early April The S&P is up 6.76% year-to-date. Industrials are leading the way, up 13.40% Price determines returns when buying an asset  Diversify away from a concentrated U.S. large-cap stock portfolio Job growth has been holding steady for almost a year now Analysts have been raising earnings estimates recently 90-day tariff suspension ends on Wednesday The Stock Market The S&P 500 rose 1.7% in a holiday-shortened week. The Nasdaq rose 1.6%. Both indexes set new record highs with the S&P reaching 6,284.65 on Thursday afternoon. The jobs report out Thursday spurred the S&P higher. The index gapped up at the open, closing Thursday up 0.83% (see chart below). The S&P 500 is up 26% from the selloff low on April 8, while the Nasdaq has surged 34.9%.

Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 3.4% last week, climbing to 6,173.07 The Magnificent 7 are outperforming the S&P 493 by over 18% since April The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) fell as low as 16.11 last week Investors seem unconcerned about tariffs and war Treasury interest rates are starting to fall The Fed has little reason to cut if unemployment isn't moving higher The stock market is at record highs Corporate bond spreads are tight, meaning credit is abundant The dollar has fallen by around 10% in 2025 Inflation is expected to move higher because of tariff The Stock Market The S&P 500 rose 3.4% last week. The Israeli-Iranian ceasefire was credited with the surge to the upside. The index had lost 0.7% over the prior two weeks.

Executive Summary The S&P 500 gained 0.3% last week, climbing to 5,967.84 The index is having trouble staying above 6,000 Technical indicators are turning somewhat negative The Federal Reserve kept the overnight rate at 4.25% - 4.50% The updated “dot plot” shows a divided Fed Seven members indicate no rate cuts in 2025 Eight members forecast two rate cuts in 2025 The Fed is forecasting a slower economy in 2025 and 2026 The hard data is starting to point to a slowing economy Inflation is still well above the Fed’s 2% target

Executive Summary The S&P 500 fell 0.4% last week to finish at 5,976.97 Friday's sell-off due to Israel's attack on Iran The Volatility Index (VIX) is rising due to the war in the Middle East Higher volatility is usually associated with a down move in the market There is no chance of a Fed Funds Rate cut at this week’s meeting according to the CME FedWatch Tool The unemployment rate has been rising slowly The dollar continues to weaken The U.S. needs to reduce its spending to avoid a currency crisis  The Stock Market

Executive Summary The S&P 500 rose 1.5% last week to finish at 6,000.36 The May payroll number came in above estimates The U.S. economy is slowing, despite the S&P 500 poking above 6,000 The Labor Force Participation Rate fell to 62.4% from 62.6% Inflation may have bottomed and is set to rise The services price paid index is pointing towards a higher CPI The declining dollar is a concern Tariffs are a tax The Q2 nowcast seems to be indicating that negative economic impacts from tariffs won’t affect Q2 International markets have far outperformed U.S. markets so far in 2025 The Stock Market The S&P 500 climbed 1.5% last week and closed at 6,000.36. The Dow rose 1.3% while the Nasdaq rose 2.0%. Interest rates rose as bond prices fell. A stronger-than-expected jobs report on Friday is getting the blame for rising yields. The jobs report was also responsible for the S&P’s gap-up open on Friday (chart below).